On Tuesday of this week Lincoln International hosted its "State of the Financing Markets" webcast. Their analysis? Good news for middle market dealmakers. According to managing directors, Ron Kahn and Bob Horak, new providers at all levels of the capital structure are putting skin in the middle market game, while existing lenders are also increasing lending levels. Across sectors, however, these new and existing lenders are continuing to concentrate on deals that are greater than $20M in EBITDA.
Yet, as a result of low deal flow, debt multiples are on the rise as pricing declines. Research by the firm found that as a result of declining returns on treasuries and investment grade securities, investors are searching for yield through other means. The search for yield has manifested in large cash inflows to high-yield bonds and loan mutual funds, which has resulted in significant liquidity in the middle market.
What is also good for middle market dealmakers is that the re-emergence of the high-yield debt market has resulted in net cash inflows from many capital sources. The high-yield market indeed has been robust. So much so that new high-yield debt is being issued at record levels. Access to this market, however, requires that companies issue at least $200M of debt; and a hefty portion of the new high-yield debt has been used to repay bank debt or refinance other debt; which is likely not a surprise to most in the industry.
In concert, according to Kahn and Horak, "accelerated repayments and reduced return opportunities in the secondary market have increased the capital supply." As a result of leveraged loan repayment, CLO's have additional capital to redeploy prior to expiration of their reinvestment periods. Meanwhile, reduced return opportunities in the secondary market are pushing hedge funds and other institutional investors back into the primary market. To offset their higher pricing, these lenders tend to offer borrowers larger hold sizes, but requires less stringent amortization terms, while filling in financing gaps left by cash flow senior lenders or other asset-based lenders.
Competition is good for the markets and so it is with the increase in competition among traditional senior lenders and improved BDC performance. According to Lincoln International's findings, middle market dealmakers should take note of the following:
- Capital flowing back to the senior cash flow lending market as a result of:
- Stabilization of the broader economy
- Decline in default rates
- Greater predictability of portfolio performance
- However, the senior cash flow market is still limited for borrowers with less than $15.0 million EBITDA
- Competition among senior lenders has increased, as existing lenders and new participants (e.g., new finance companies) compete for limited deal flow
- BDCs' improved stock performance has enabled them to raise both debt and equity capital
- New BDCs continue to enter the market
- With increased capital, BDCs have become, once again, significant players in the middle market
- BDCs are especially well-suited to provide unitranche credit facilities.
So what should middle market dealmakers be mindful of? While there is much to be sanguine about, the firm warns that there is still the current imbalance between supply and demand for capital which could result in a 180 degree change any time over the next year. This, of course, would make capital more expensive or harder to obtain altogether. Right now, companies should consider refinancing or recapitalizing where they can. And as always, middle market dealmakers should look at economic conditions, default rates, interest rates, supply of capital, CLO's ability to raise capital and transaction volume across sectors.
Kahn and Horak warn, however, "despite improved credit market conditions, it is still necessary to conduct a broad process that involves contacting multiple financing sources." Alternative structures require the need to explore multiple capital structures simultaneously, which season middle market dealmakers are pursuing. When? Now.
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